whirl wind

/ 2008-10-04 / 1223165891 / @c_p_g /

The Dow was up 300 or so "on the bailout expectations." Then the vote came, everyone on the floor watched, it passed, and then the Dow sank 400+. Nice.

The Cubs were favored on Tradesports to win it all coming into the playoffs. Right now they're 5% bid - the Red Sox are trading around 30%. Even down 0-2 right now they're about 11% to win the pennant and 19% to win the series, and 55% to win tonight.

On Friday at the BOT futures-style Cub's playoff win contracts traded between 1.25 and 2 (buyer pays contract in dollars in exchange for $1 paid back for each Cub's win). Two things happen with Chicago sports betting - people usually overpay for the home team (overconfidence) and sometimes they don't mind the emotional hedge and paying out if their teams happen to win (which is why there are sellers at 1.25).

And speaking of Intrade related stuffs, they've listed some binary options on their most popular contracts - namely the polical/presidentials. There's no liquidity and no one trading them so it there's no way to guage accurately the implied volatility of the presidential contracts.

Harry's been getting misc. gigs - including one where they painted him up like a Picaso. See below.

ooOO

/ 2008-10-01 / 1222917508 / @c_p_g /

Ann Arbor highlights:

• "Banana" puking in row 57 of section 26 during what would become Michigan's second biggest comeback; "largest U-M combeback in Michigan Stadium's 500-game history"
• Crew.
• Cafe Habana (very good) and Real Seafood Co (also very good).
• Borrowing the Raptor swing. Forever.
• Family stuff: The Tigers losing a Classic 2008 game (late) and a poor shwag day; sailing.

Other:

• Both Chicago teams are in the playoffs at the same time for the first time in 102 years.
• The VIX closed about 40. Everyone in pop-finance quotes it - no one can explain it (or no one tries to).
• The Cubbies lost game 1 - Wrigleyville was in a depressed but "Just the first game" mood.
• VP debate airs tomorrow.

research program

/ 2008-09-27 / 1222531912 / @braden's house /

If Amtrak is at all consistent, it's that they're consistently late. And always odd excuses: track fires and freight trains in the way and signal lights not working and sleeping conductors. You would think that since we're dealing with tracks and schedules that they'd be able to get people to their destinations on time.

We rolled in a bit before 1am last night - Jim, Jeremy, Brian and I hung out on Jim's roof after taking a little tour of the ameteur hour that is bar closing time in AA. Jeremy and I are going to watch Michigan likely pickup their third loss against Wisconsin and Harry's in town this evening. Wisconsin is 65% to win and the spread is about 6pts on Tradesports.

Snooze:

• Todd Jones has had enough. As nice as he is, so have I... '"So this is it," Jones wrote in this week's magazine. "If you're a Tigers fan, I'll never stress you out again. If you're not a Tigers fan, you'll never have me as your ace in the hole, convinced I'll blow a lead against your team."'
• Obama is back up to 56% to win the presidency on Intrade.
• I missed the debate.

too many times before

/ 2008-09-21 / 1222011875 / @c_p_g /

Man on Wire had the highest rating of all of the indie flicks available at Century City this weekend (namely: 100%). It's about Philippe Petit and his crew tackling the project of tightrope walking between the WTC towers. It seemed a little longer than it should have been, but it was different and entertaining. 3.75 of 5 over here.

There's a giant wikipedia page on the subprime mortgage crisis. It's too long to focus through, so I'll put up some quotes from the eerily similar Panic of 1907:

• "Its primary cause was a retraction of loans by some banks that began in New York City and soon spread across the nation, leading to the closings of banks and businesses."
• "The panic was sparked after an attempt to corner the market in a copper company collapsed in October. The failure of the corner prompted runs on banks that had loaned money for the scheme. This spread to affiliated banks and trusts, leading to the downfall of the Knickerbocker Trust Company, New York's third largest trust company, a week later."
• "At the time the United States had no central bank to provide liquidity. The panic may have been worse if not for the intervention of New York's most famous banker J.P. Morgan, who convinced other bankers in the city to provide a backstop for the crisis."

Fed to Provide $85 Billion Bridge Loan to AIG: Source

/ 2008-09-16 / 1221610389 / @c_p_g /

Y! Finance apparently isn't equipped to handle 1B+ volume days. AIG is showing up with a volume today of "1230,089,283" right now. As the world comes to an end: another one bites the dust.